This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Delaware

3–4 (1–2 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-12.9120th of 138
SP+ offense21.1103rd of 138
SP+ defense33.7121st of 138
PRIME-10.2108th of 138
Elo137193rd of 138
Week 9

Delaware at Western Kentucky

Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Delaware 24, Western Kentucky 28. Big Al's pick: Delaware (49%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.371st
Yards per play5.7699th
Success rate38.6%118th
Explosive play rate11.6%85th
Yards per carry4.76101st
Yards per pass attempt6.9097th
Sack rate allowed7.1%102nd
3rd down conversion30.4%131st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed28.4107th
Yards per play allowed6.88119th
Success rate allowed46.9%117th
Explosive plays allowed13.9%113th
Yards per carry allowed4.9277th
Yards per attempt allowed9.31125th
Sack rate8.0%28th
3rd downs allowed40.8%88th

Players

Donovan Lewis (WR), Jo'Nathan Silver (RB), Nick Minicucci (QB), Sean Wilson (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. MerrimackW 42–7
2at VanderbiltL 26–35
3vs. Coastal CarolinaW 22–14
4at VirginiaL 3–42
5vs. LibertyL 14–30
7at Middle TennesseeL 30–33
8vs. Missouri StateW 61–38

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Delaware with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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