This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Utah

7–0 (4–0 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating19.410th of 138
SP+ offense37.011th of 138
SP+ defense17.720th of 138
PRIME18.98th of 138
Elo189610th of 138
Week 9

Utah at Cincinnati

Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM ET. SP+ projection: Utah 38, Cincinnati 27. Big Al's pick: Utah (81%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game37.415th
Yards per play7.578th
Success rate53.6%2nd
Explosive play rate16.7%6th
Yards per carry6.486th
Yards per pass attempt9.2819th
Sack rate allowed4.4%41st
3rd down conversion59.5%1st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed14.69th
Yards per play allowed4.9313th
Success rate allowed33.0%7th
Explosive plays allowed8.9%15th
Yards per carry allowed3.8611th
Yards per attempt allowed5.8619th
Sack rate4.3%115th
3rd downs allowed32.4%24th

Players

Devon Dampier (QB), Wayshawn Parker (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. IdahoW 66–14
2vs. ArkansasW 43–10
3vs. Utah StateW 33–0
4at Iowa StateW 31–17
6vs. KansasW 41–24
7at ColoradoW 27–24
8vs. HoustonW 21–13

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Utah with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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