This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Colorado

2–5 (0–4 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-1.380th of 138
SP+ offense22.899th of 138
SP+ defense23.648th of 138
PRIME0.566th of 138
Elo1265112th of 138
Week 9

Kansas State at Colorado

Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Colorado 20, Kansas State 31. Big Al's pick: Kansas State (72%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.1120th
Yards per play5.53115th
Success rate36.9%125th
Explosive play rate10.9%100th
Yards per carry4.43117th
Yards per pass attempt6.68110th
Sack rate allowed5.0%59th
3rd down conversion31.8%123rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.1112th
Yards per play allowed6.34100th
Success rate allowed44.1%93rd
Explosive plays allowed14.8%126th
Yards per carry allowed4.5248th
Yards per attempt allowed8.95120th
Sack rate7.4%40th
3rd downs allowed46.6%123rd

Players

DeAndre Moore Jr. (WR), Isaac Wilson (QB), Jaquail Smith (RB), Joseph Williams (WR), Lamont Lester Jr. (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Georgia TechW 14–13
2vs. Weber StateW 52–21
3at NorthwesternL 7–41
4at BaylorL 13–23
5vs. Texas TechL 7–29
7vs. UtahL 24–27
8at Oklahoma StateL 24–57

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Colorado with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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