This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Kansas

3–4 (1–3 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating3.558th of 138
SP+ offense28.062nd of 138
SP+ defense24.760th of 138
PRIME4.249th of 138
Elo159551st of 138
Week 9

Kansas at TCU

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projects Kansas 17, TCU 26. Big Al's pick: TCU (63%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game31.055th
Yards per play6.2859th
Success rate43.0%78th
Explosive play rate16.2%11th
Yards per carry5.4548th
Yards per pass attempt7.6469th
Sack rate allowed4.9%55th
3rd down conversion34.3%108th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.068th
Yards per play allowed6.0082nd
Success rate allowed39.8%55th
Explosive plays allowed11.8%84th
Yards per carry allowed5.1692nd
Yards per attempt allowed7.4478th
Sack rate5.4%84th
3rd downs allowed37.9%63rd

Players

Cam Pickett (WR), Dylan Edwards (RB), Isaiah Marshall (QB), Nik McMillan (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Long Island UniversityW 51–6
2vs. MissouriL 21–38
3vs. Arizona StateL 17–24
5vs. Middle TennesseeW 55–0
6at UtahL 24–41
7at Kansas StateL 24–35
8vs. BaylorW 25–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Kansas with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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