This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Houston

6–2 (3–2 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating14.318th of 138
SP+ offense37.89th of 138
SP+ defense23.752nd of 138
PRIME11.723rd of 138
Elo161544th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.024th
Yards per play6.3950th
Success rate49.9%17th
Explosive play rate11.8%81st
Yards per carry5.4944th
Yards per pass attempt7.5871st
Sack rate allowed3.4%26th
3rd down conversion52.1%8th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.044th
Yards per play allowed6.98123rd
Success rate allowed47.9%123rd
Explosive plays allowed14.4%122nd
Yards per carry allowed4.7366th
Yards per attempt allowed9.38126th
Sack rate5.6%78th
3rd downs allowed46.1%120th

Players

Amare Thomas (WR), Ashton Porter (DL), Conner Weigman (QB), Eric Olsen (TE), Makhi Hughes (RB), Patrick Overmyer (TE), Re'Shaun Sanford II (RB), Trent Walker (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Oregon StateW 33–20
2vs. SouthernW 77–6
3at Texas TechL 26–28
4at Georgia SouthernW 42–28
5vs. UCFW 27–17
6at Kansas StateW 35–16
7vs. Oklahoma StateW 35–32
8at UtahL 13–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Houston with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.