This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Iowa State

3–4 (1–3 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating1.068th of 138
SP+ offense25.483rd of 138
SP+ defense24.659th of 138
PRIME3.054th of 138
Elo155160th of 138
Week 9

Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Iowa State 25, Oklahoma State 33. Big Al's pick: Oklahoma State (57%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game25.990th
Yards per play5.9688th
Success rate39.7%108th
Explosive play rate12.8%50th
Yards per carry5.1770th
Yards per pass attempt7.4977th
Sack rate allowed6.7%94th
3rd down conversion31.6%124th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.170th
Yards per play allowed6.2495th
Success rate allowed41.0%62nd
Explosive plays allowed10.5%58th
Yards per carry allowed5.2293rd
Yards per attempt allowed7.6783rd
Sack rate4.7%106th
3rd downs allowed33.7%33rd

Players

Aiden Flora (RB), Jaylen Raynor (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Southeast Missouri StateW 38–10
2at IowaL 13–16
3vs. Bowling GreenW 55–7
4vs. UtahL 17–31
5vs. West VirginiaW 45–42
6at BYUL 10–24
8at ArizonaL 3–39

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Iowa State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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