This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Maryland

2–5 (0–4 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-2.988th of 138
SP+ offense26.970th of 138
SP+ defense29.9102nd of 138
PRIME-3.485th of 138
Elo1294109th of 138
Week 9

Illinois at Maryland

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Maryland 30, Illinois 36. Big Al's pick: Illinois (72%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.372nd
Yards per play5.60108th
Success rate39.3%113th
Explosive play rate12.1%72nd
Yards per carry4.9682nd
Yards per pass attempt6.16119th
Sack rate allowed2.4%9th
3rd down conversion31.0%128th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed33.3127th
Yards per play allowed6.3299th
Success rate allowed46.1%113th
Explosive plays allowed11.0%70th
Yards per carry allowed4.8172nd
Yards per attempt allowed8.66115th
Sack rate8.3%22nd
3rd downs allowed44.0%106th

Players

Chris Durr Jr. (WR), Dorian Fleming (TE), Iverson Howard (RB), Kaleb Webb (WR), Malik Washington (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. HamptonW 62–0
2at UConnW 38–14
3vs. Virginia TechL 26–35
4vs. UCLAL 3–54
5at NebraskaL 23–48
6at Ohio StateL 16–45
7vs. RutgersL 30–37

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Maryland with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.