This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

San Diego State

3–5 (2–2 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-8.7104th of 138
SP+ offense20.3108th of 138
SP+ defense29.599th of 138
PRIME-11.8117th of 138
Elo1245116th of 138
Week 9

Washington State at San Diego State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: San Diego State 24, Washington State 19. Big Al's pick: San Diego State (51%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game26.587th
Yards per play5.71102nd
Success rate38.4%119th
Explosive play rate10.6%107th
Yards per carry4.67103rd
Yards per pass attempt7.3881st
Sack rate allowed4.9%56th
3rd down conversion35.0%102nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed36.1133rd
Yards per play allowed6.0384th
Success rate allowed48.6%126th
Explosive plays allowed10.1%40th
Yards per carry allowed4.6758th
Yards per attempt allowed7.8987th
Sack rate5.3%90th
3rd downs allowed44.7%112th

Players

Djibril Abdou Rahman (DL), Javion Kinnard (RB), Jayden Denegal (QB), Kai Wallin (DL), Lucky Sutton (RB), Nathan Acevedo (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Portland StateW 53–20
2at UCLAL 10–28
3vs. James MadisonL 13–26
4at ToledoL 16–41
5vs. Texas StateW 31–29
6at Oregon StateL 14–66
7vs. Fresno StateW 26–23
8at Colorado StateL 49–56

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare San Diego State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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