This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

UAB

4–3 (2–1 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-8.9106th of 138
SP+ offense19.7111th of 138
SP+ defense28.995th of 138
PRIME-6.797th of 138
Elo139691st of 138
Week 9

UAB at South Florida

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: UAB 17, South Florida 31. Big Al's pick: South Florida (77%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game23.3104th
Yards per play5.8592nd
Success rate45.2%57th
Explosive play rate10.5%110th
Yards per carry4.9086th
Yards per pass attempt8.4439th
Sack rate allowed11.8%130th
3rd down conversion45.4%35th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.674th
Yards per play allowed4.9415th
Success rate allowed40.6%57th
Explosive plays allowed8.8%14th
Yards per carry allowed5.0584th
Yards per attempt allowed5.133rd
Sack rate6.9%50th
3rd downs allowed36.7%53rd

Players

Braylon McReynolds (RB), Roderick Robinson II (RB), Ryder Burton (QB), Tylin Jackson (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at IllinoisL 23–42
2vs. UL MonroeW 26–20
3at LouisianaL 14–21
4vs. NavyW 24–20
5vs. SamfordW 33–14
6at MemphisL 13–38
7vs. East CarolinaW 30–17

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UAB with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.