This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Memphis

6–2 (3–1 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating6.551st of 138
SP+ offense32.834th of 138
SP+ defense26.372nd of 138
PRIME1.563rd of 138
Elo162243rd of 138
Week 9

Army at Memphis

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Memphis 37, Army 30. Big Al's pick: Memphis (67%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.122nd
Yards per play7.4210th
Success rate48.9%22nd
Explosive play rate16.4%10th
Yards per carry6.2212th
Yards per pass attempt9.4413th
Sack rate allowed5.9%79th
3rd down conversion40.8%67th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.866th
Yards per play allowed6.43106th
Success rate allowed38.9%50th
Explosive plays allowed14.0%116th
Yards per carry allowed5.73120th
Yards per attempt allowed7.8585th
Sack rate8.1%27th
3rd downs allowed32.4%25th

Players

Braylon Burnside (WR), Elijah Kinsler (DL), Hunter Tipton (TE), Jaylin Carter (RB), Jermane Hayes (WR), Manny Covey (RB), Marcus Stokes (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Arkansas StateW 42–24
1at UNLVW 27–21
2at Boise StateL 20–38
3vs. UT MartinW 45–21
5at CharlotteW 59–8
6vs. UABW 38–13
7at TulaneL 17–31
8vs. East CarolinaW 41–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Memphis with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.