This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Illinois

4–3 (2–2 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating6.052nd of 138
SP+ offense33.130th of 138
SP+ defense27.482nd of 138
PRIME6.242nd of 138
Elo158055th of 138
Week 9

Illinois at Maryland

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Illinois 36, Maryland 30. Big Al's pick: Illinois (72%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.358th
Yards per play6.1965th
Success rate45.3%53rd
Explosive play rate12.0%77th
Yards per carry5.8229th
Yards per pass attempt6.74106th
Sack rate allowed3.6%28th
3rd down conversion40.7%69th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.379th
Yards per play allowed6.50110th
Success rate allowed49.2%129th
Explosive plays allowed11.3%75th
Yards per carry allowed4.5047th
Yards per attempt allowed8.90119th
Sack rate3.5%127th
3rd downs allowed44.6%111th

Players

Aidan Laughery (RB), Brayden Trimble (WR), Collin Dixon (WR), Hudson Clement (WR), Katin Houser (QB), Tiaquelin Mims (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. UABW 42–23
2vs. DukeL 27–31
3vs. Southern IllinoisW 48–10
4at Ohio StateL 19–42
5vs. PurdueL 17–24
6at Michigan StateW 38–37
8vs. OregonW 21–10

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Illinois with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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