This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

UL Monroe

1–6 (1–2 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-27.4138th of 138
SP+ offense14.8132nd of 138
SP+ defense41.7138th of 138
PRIME-20.1134th of 138
Elo1036133rd of 138
Week 9

Southern Miss at UL Monroe

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: UL Monroe 26, Southern Miss 34. Big Al's pick: Southern Miss (66%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.1123rd
Yards per play5.9887th
Success rate45.7%46th
Explosive play rate12.1%74th
Yards per carry4.19123rd
Yards per pass attempt8.4041st
Sack rate allowed6.7%93rd
3rd down conversion33.3%115th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed37.3134th
Yards per play allowed6.1588th
Success rate allowed43.5%88th
Explosive plays allowed12.1%89th
Yards per carry allowed5.73119th
Yards per attempt allowed7.0167th
Sack rate5.4%83rd
3rd downs allowed40.4%84th

Players

Aidan Armenta (QB), Marcellus Jackson (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Mississippi StateL 13–62
2at UABL 20–26
3vs. SE LouisianaL 35–38
4vs. Florida AtlanticL 17–45
5at South AlabamaL 35–52
7vs. Louisiana TechL 0–24
8at TroyW 21–14

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UL Monroe with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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