This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Kennesaw State

1–6 (0–3 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-10.8112th of 138
SP+ offense19.9110th of 138
SP+ defense30.3104th of 138
PRIME-14.8128th of 138
Elo1264113th of 138
Week 9

Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee

Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 23. Big Al's pick: Kennesaw State (52%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.0124th
Yards per play5.61106th
Success rate44.0%68th
Explosive play rate10.5%108th
Yards per carry4.49113th
Yards per pass attempt6.77102nd
Sack rate allowed3.2%22nd
3rd down conversion40.0%71st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.077th
Yards per play allowed6.2191st
Success rate allowed44.6%97th
Explosive plays allowed12.4%97th
Yards per carry allowed5.0382nd
Yards per attempt allowed7.6382nd
Sack rate2.8%134th
3rd downs allowed37.8%62nd

Players

Alan Woods III (RB), Brayden Munroe (WR), Dylan Gary (WR), Javon Rogers (WR), Rickie Collins (QB), Zion Booker (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. West GeorgiaW 47–0
2vs. Georgia StateL 17–31
3at TennesseeL 9–42
4at Arkansas StateL 14–17
6vs. Jacksonville StateL 26–27
7at Missouri StateL 21–24
8vs. LibertyL 6–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Kennesaw State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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