This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Florida International

3–4 (1–2 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-6.298th of 138
SP+ offense17.5119th of 138
SP+ defense23.751st of 138
PRIME-8.298th of 138
Elo140190th of 138
Week 9

Florida International at Liberty

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Florida International 12, Liberty 28. Big Al's pick: Liberty (90%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.1121st
Yards per play5.50117th
Success rate40.0%105th
Explosive play rate11.5%90th
Yards per carry4.00128th
Yards per pass attempt7.0491st
Sack rate allowed2.4%10th
3rd down conversion44.4%44th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.321st
Yards per play allowed5.2430th
Success rate allowed37.0%31st
Explosive plays allowed11.1%74th
Yards per carry allowed4.4846th
Yards per attempt allowed6.3836th
Sack rate6.4%63rd
3rd downs allowed29.9%15th

Players

Anthony Carrie (RB), Devonte Lyons (RB), J.J. Kohl (QB), Kenton Simmons (DE), Maguire Anderson (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at South FloridaL 9–19
2vs. BuffaloW 33–20
3at Florida AtlanticL 10–16
4vs. Long Island UniversityW 20–3
6vs. New Mexico StateW 22–3
7at Jacksonville StateL 24–27
8vs. Middle TennesseeL 23–26

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Florida International with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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