This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Temple

2–5 (1–2 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-6.9102nd of 138
SP+ offense26.080th of 138
SP+ defense33.0119th of 138
PRIME-6.696th of 138
Elo1298108th of 138
Week 9

Temple at East Carolina

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Temple 24, East Carolina 29. Big Al's pick: East Carolina (64%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game25.792nd
Yards per play7.0718th
Success rate45.3%54th
Explosive play rate16.0%12th
Yards per carry6.1415th
Yards per pass attempt9.3916th
Sack rate allowed9.2%120th
3rd down conversion46.3%31st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed28.0104th
Yards per play allowed6.2192nd
Success rate allowed46.8%116th
Explosive plays allowed13.5%110th
Yards per carry allowed4.7265th
Yards per attempt allowed8.44109th
Sack rate4.3%114th
3rd downs allowed51.2%134th

Players

Ajani Sheppard (QB), Keveun Mason (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Rhode IslandW 38–14
2vs. Penn StateL 9–27
3at ToledoL 48–49
4vs. ArmyL 17–21
5at South FloridaW 17–13
6vs. UConnL 20–34
7vs. CharlotteL 31–38

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Temple with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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