This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Army

5–2 (4–1 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating1.267th of 138
SP+ offense30.342nd of 138
SP+ defense29.297th of 138
PRIME-0.974th of 138
Elo157156th of 138
Week 9

Army at Memphis

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Army 30, Memphis 37. Big Al's pick: Memphis (67%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game35.332nd
Yards per play6.1770th
Success rate48.9%21st
Explosive play rate12.6%58th
Yards per carry6.504th
Yards per pass attempt5.14131st
Sack rate allowed2.9%14th
3rd down conversion46.2%32nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed22.154th
Yards per play allowed7.37133rd
Success rate allowed47.8%122nd
Explosive plays allowed14.5%124th
Yards per carry allowed5.90125th
Yards per attempt allowed9.48128th
Sack rate5.0%95th
3rd downs allowed49.2%131st

Players

Cale Hellums (QB), Godspower Nwawuihe (RB), Victor Afolabi (LB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. BryantW 59–3
2vs. South FloridaL 24–28
4at TempleW 21–17
5at Louisiana TechL 29–31
6vs. TulaneW 20–17
7vs. Florida AtlanticW 56–24
8at TulsaW 38–35

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Army with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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