This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Bowling Green

2–6 (2–2 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-17.9130th of 138
SP+ offense15.0129th of 138
SP+ defense32.7116th of 138
PRIME-13.6124th of 138
Elo1231119th of 138
Week 9

Bowling Green at Western Michigan

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Bowling Green 11, Western Michigan 30. Big Al's pick: Western Michigan (86%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game18.8131st
Yards per play5.07128th
Success rate38.7%117th
Explosive play rate9.2%126th
Yards per carry3.72132nd
Yards per pass attempt6.8499th
Sack rate allowed4.8%53rd
3rd down conversion38.2%84th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed29.8109th
Yards per play allowed6.99124th
Success rate allowed49.5%133rd
Explosive plays allowed13.0%102nd
Yards per carry allowed6.53135th
Yards per attempt allowed8.34104th
Sack rate7.1%45th
3rd downs allowed41.3%92nd

Players

Austyn Dendy (RB), Brennan Ridley (WR), Cashmire Lewis (LB), Eli Jacon-Duffy (TE), Eriq George (DE), Jay Kastantin (QB), Jeremiah Scoby (TE), Nakai Amachree (RB), Winn Sharp (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Tarleton StateL 13–20
2at NebraskaL 7–56
3at Iowa StateL 7–55
4vs. South FloridaL 6–14
5at Miami (OH)W 24–20
6vs. Sacramento StateW 38–10
7vs. Ball StateL 31–32
8at BuffaloL 24–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Bowling Green with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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