This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Kent State

3–5 (2–2 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-22.3132nd of 138
SP+ offense11.5137th of 138
SP+ defense33.1120th of 138
PRIME-16.8131st of 138
Elo1026135th of 138
Week 9

Kent State at Sacramento State

Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Kent State 21, Sacramento State 19. Big Al's pick: Kent State (60%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game14.9137th
Yards per play4.67133rd
Success rate33.5%133rd
Explosive play rate8.0%132nd
Yards per carry3.53134th
Yards per pass attempt6.05121st
Sack rate allowed5.7%75th
3rd down conversion32.4%122nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.5115th
Yards per play allowed7.01125th
Success rate allowed51.4%137th
Explosive plays allowed14.1%117th
Yards per carry allowed5.49108th
Yards per attempt allowed9.69134th
Sack rate7.1%48th
3rd downs allowed47.6%129th

Players

Brandon White (RB), Dru Deshields (QB), Hayden Dawahare (LB), Rocco Nicholl (LB), Wayne Harris (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at South CarolinaL 0–57
2vs. WoffordW 36–15
3at Ohio StateL 3–59
4vs. Ball StateW 26–13
5vs. OhioL 10–13
6at Western MichiganL 7–38
7at South FloridaL 2–29
8vs. AkronW 35–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Kent State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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