This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Indiana

7–1 (4–1 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating23.65th of 138
SP+ offense36.613th of 138
SP+ defense13.22nd of 138
PRIME18.59th of 138
Elo20762nd of 138
Week 9

Minnesota at Indiana

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Indiana 34, Minnesota 11. Big Al's pick: Indiana (96%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game33.638th
Yards per play6.8223rd
Success rate43.0%77th
Explosive play rate15.3%16th
Yards per carry6.0317th
Yards per pass attempt8.0250th
Sack rate allowed4.2%35th
3rd down conversion38.3%83rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed12.02nd
Yards per play allowed5.0619th
Success rate allowed35.9%20th
Explosive plays allowed9.5%27th
Yards per carry allowed3.393rd
Yards per attempt allowed7.6281st
Sack rate11.3%3rd
3rd downs allowed36.1%49th

Players

Charlie Becker (WR), Josh Hoover (QB), Lee Beebe (RB), Nick Marsh (WR), Stephen Daley (DL), Tobi Osunsanmi (DL), Turbo Richard (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. North TexasW 52–16
2vs. HowardW 55–0
3vs. Western KentuckyW 38–0
4vs. NorthwesternW 29–23
5at RutgersW 47–15
6at NebraskaW 20–17
7vs. Ohio StateL 15–19
8at MichiganW 13–6

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Indiana with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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