This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Northwestern

6–1 (3–1 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating12.626th of 138
SP+ offense32.735th of 138
SP+ defense20.430th of 138
PRIME16.013th of 138
Elo175622nd of 138
Week 9

Northwestern at Oregon

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Northwestern 22, Oregon 31. Big Al's pick: Oregon (55%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game34.735th
Yards per play7.0917th
Success rate48.6%23rd
Explosive play rate17.8%1st
Yards per carry6.1813th
Yards per pass attempt8.8325th
Sack rate allowed7.1%100th
3rd down conversion44.0%49th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.622nd
Yards per play allowed5.7673rd
Success rate allowed43.4%86th
Explosive plays allowed10.5%57th
Yards per carry allowed5.37102nd
Yards per attempt allowed6.4040th
Sack rate4.9%101st
3rd downs allowed41.7%94th

Players

Aidan Chiles (QB), Braydon Brus (LB), Caleb Komolafe (RB), Drew Wagner (WR), Grahm Goering (WR), Griffin Wilde (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. South Dakota StateW 34–18
3vs. ColoradoW 41–7
4at IndianaL 23–29
5vs. Penn StateW 34–13
6vs. Ball StateW 45–14
7at Michigan StateW 24–21
8vs. RutgersW 42–14

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Northwestern with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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