This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Boston College

4–3 (2–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-3.289th of 138
SP+ offense21.1102nd of 138
SP+ defense24.457th of 138
PRIME1.562nd of 138
Elo146874th of 138
Week 9

Boston College at Duke

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Boston College 18, Duke 30. Big Al's pick: Duke (74%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game24.496th
Yards per play5.9884th
Success rate40.6%97th
Explosive play rate14.0%34th
Yards per carry5.8825th
Yards per pass attempt6.57111th
Sack rate allowed7.4%104th
3rd down conversion33.7%111th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.663rd
Yards per play allowed5.7775th
Success rate allowed42.8%79th
Explosive plays allowed9.4%24th
Yards per carry allowed4.6054th
Yards per attempt allowed7.7184th
Sack rate8.7%18th
3rd downs allowed38.2%67th

Players

Demetrius Ballard (DE), E'Lla Boykin (DL), Evan Dickens (RB), Javarius Green (WR), Mason McKenzie (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at CincinnatiL 15–34
2vs. RutgersW 28–21
3vs. MaineW 22–16
4vs. Virginia TechL 14–21
5at SMUL 16–25
7vs. PittsburghW 27–21
8at Georgia TechW 49–27

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Boston College with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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