This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

Marshall

4–3 (1–2 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-13.2121st of 138
SP+ offense24.193rd of 138
SP+ defense37.3133rd of 138
PRIME-12.2119th of 138
Elo135599th of 138
Week 9

Marshall at Old Dominion

Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Marshall 23, Old Dominion 28. Big Al's pick: Marshall (55%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.7109th
Yards per play——
Success rate——
Explosive play rate——
Yards per carry——
Yards per pass attempt——
Sack rate allowed——
3rd down conversion——

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.7118th
Yards per play allowed7.08129th
Success rate allowed46.4%115th
Explosive plays allowed13.5%109th
Yards per carry allowed5.78122nd
Yards per attempt allowed8.84117th
Sack rate3.0%130th
3rd downs allowed43.7%104th

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Penn StateL 0–45
2vs. Middle TennesseeW 28–26
3at Missouri StateW 30–24
4vs. Gardner-WebbW 36–35
5at James MadisonL 17–45
6vs. Coastal CarolinaL 21–27
8vs. South AlabamaW 20–13

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Marshall with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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