This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Buffalo

5–3 (3–1 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-12.2118th of 138
SP+ offense14.8131st of 138
SP+ defense27.279th of 138
PRIME-11.8116th of 138
Elo136397th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game22.6107th
Yards per play4.62134th
Success rate33.8%132nd
Explosive play rate8.1%131st
Yards per carry5.0874th
Yards per pass attempt4.54134th
Sack rate allowed6.2%86th
3rd down conversion35.3%100th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.483rd
Yards per play allowed6.50111th
Success rate allowed44.7%98th
Explosive plays allowed11.8%83rd
Yards per carry allowed4.7970th
Yards per attempt allowed9.49129th
Sack rate6.6%59th
3rd downs allowed38.8%73rd

Players

Chance Morrow (WR), Jason Wright (QB), Messiah Burch (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. UAlbanyW 21–17
2at Florida InternationalL 20–33
3at Penn StateL 13–55
4vs. Robert MorrisW 31–28
5vs. Western MichiganL 17–20
6at ToledoW 23–8
7vs. MassachusettsW 25–18
8vs. Bowling GreenW 31–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Buffalo with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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