This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

Oregon State

5–2 (3–0 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating9.139th of 138
SP+ offense33.725th of 138
SP+ defense24.255th of 138
PRIME9.032nd of 138
Elo161147th of 138
Week 9

Oregon State at Fresno State

Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Oregon State 30, Fresno State 27. Big Al's pick: Oregon State (59%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game42.74th
Yards per play7.3911th
Success rate50.2%14th
Explosive play rate14.9%23rd
Yards per carry5.4052nd
Yards per pass attempt8.9521st
Sack rate allowed2.9%16th
3rd down conversion45.1%40th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.162nd
Yards per play allowed5.7774th
Success rate allowed43.1%83rd
Explosive plays allowed9.6%29th
Yards per carry allowed5.2898th
Yards per attempt allowed6.8556th
Sack rate8.4%21st
3rd downs allowed43.0%100th

Players

AJ Newberry (RB), Braden Atkinson (QB), D.C. Temple (TE), Jesse Legree (WR), Takari Hickle (LB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at HoustonL 20–33
2vs. Texas TechL 24–35
3vs. MontanaW 52–17
4at UTEPW 33–7
5at Colorado StateW 56–26
6vs. San Diego StateW 66–14
7vs. Washington StateW 48–30

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Oregon State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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