This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Texas Tech

6–1 (3–1 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating21.97th of 138
SP+ offense37.98th of 138
SP+ defense16.314th of 138
PRIME4.647th of 138
Elo182513th of 138
Week 9

Arizona at Texas Tech

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Texas Tech 33, Arizona 25. Big Al's pick: Texas Tech (54%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game35.927th
Yards per play7.1015th
Success rate53.4%3rd
Explosive play rate15.5%13th
Yards per carry5.6436th
Yards per pass attempt9.5710th
Sack rate allowed5.0%58th
3rd down conversion47.9%20th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.435th
Yards per play allowed5.2428th
Success rate allowed36.7%29th
Explosive plays allowed10.7%60th
Yards per carry allowed4.6760th
Yards per attempt allowed5.9121st
Sack rate6.1%69th
3rd downs allowed34.2%36th

Players

Anthony Holmes Jr. (DL), Cameron Dickey (RB), Coy Eakin (WR), J'Koby Williams (RB), Kenny Johnson (WR), LaDamion Guyton (), Quinten Joyner (RB), Will Hammond (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Abilene ChristianW 33–10
2at Oregon StateW 35–24
3vs. HoustonW 28–26
4vs. Sam HoustonW 49–14
5at ColoradoW 29–7
7vs. Arizona StateW 53–25
8at CincinnatiL 24–37

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Texas Tech with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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