This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

UTEP

1–6 (0–3 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-24.6134th of 138
SP+ offense13.2135th of 138
SP+ defense37.1131st of 138
PRIME-25.8136th of 138
Elo992136th of 138
Week 9

UTEP at North Dakota State

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projects UTEP 2, North Dakota State 39. Big Al's pick: North Dakota State (99%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game15.1136th
Yards per play5.8094th
Success rate38.0%120th
Explosive play rate11.6%83rd
Yards per carry5.2863rd
Yards per pass attempt8.1945th
Sack rate allowed21.0%134th
3rd down conversion27.2%134th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed37.3135th
Yards per play allowed6.2898th
Success rate allowed45.0%101st
Explosive plays allowed12.3%93rd
Yards per carry allowed5.57111th
Yards per attempt allowed7.4277th
Sack rate4.0%119th
3rd downs allowed45.1%114th

Players

EJ Colson (QB), Jaden Smith (WR), Sterling Miles (DE), Tavorus Jones (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at OklahomaL 0–51
2vs. Texas SouthernW 51–10
3at MichiganL 17–52
4vs. Oregon StateL 7–33
5at New MexicoL 7–61
6vs. NevadaL 13–30
7vs. San José StateL 11–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UTEP with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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