This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Charlotte

1–6 (1–2 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-24.8135th of 138
SP+ offense15.7127th of 138
SP+ defense40.4137th of 138
PRIME-16.9132nd of 138
Elo1026134th of 138
Week 9

Tulane at Charlotte

Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Charlotte 18, Tulane 33. Big Al's pick: Tulane (82%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game19.1128th
Yards per play5.8095th
Success rate36.4%129th
Explosive play rate12.1%70th
Yards per carry4.8988th
Yards per pass attempt6.9296th
Sack rate allowed5.7%73rd
3rd down conversion31.1%126th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed40.6137th
Yards per play allowed7.27132nd
Success rate allowed51.3%136th
Explosive plays allowed15.0%127th
Yards per carry allowed5.37101st
Yards per attempt allowed10.07136th
Sack rate5.1%92nd
3rd downs allowed47.6%128th

Players

Cole Gonzales (QB), Derrick Eley (WR), Henry Rutledge (RB), Jaden Barnes (WR), Jaylen Hampton (WR), Khamani Alexander (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. The CitadelL 41–43
2at Ole MissL 9–41
3at App StateL 21–26
4vs. LouisianaL 7–34
5vs. MemphisL 8–59
6at North TexasL 10–50
7at TempleW 38–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Charlotte with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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