This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Louisville

4–3 (3–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating12.924th of 138
SP+ offense38.95th of 138
SP+ defense25.965th of 138
PRIME12.220th of 138
Elo171329th of 138
Week 9

Stanford at Louisville

Sat, Oct 31, 3:15 PM ET. SP+ projection: Louisville 46, Stanford 19. Big Al's pick: Louisville (97%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game38.711th
Yards per play7.982nd
Success rate48.1%28th
Explosive play rate17.7%2nd
Yards per carry7.701st
Yards per pass attempt8.7030th
Sack rate allowed5.1%62nd
3rd down conversion41.7%61st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed27.499th
Yards per play allowed6.2193rd
Success rate allowed43.6%89th
Explosive plays allowed11.6%81st
Yards per carry allowed4.7063rd
Yards per attempt allowed8.45110th
Sack rate8.0%29th
3rd downs allowed39.2%77th

Players

Clev Lubin (DL), Isaac Brown (RB), Lawayne McCoy (WR), Lincoln Kienholz (QB), Tre Richardson (WR), Treyshun Hurry (WR), Tyler Thompson (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Ole MissL 38–41
2vs. VillanovaW 59–13
3vs. SMUW 41–31
4vs. Wake ForestL 27–30
5at NC StateL 28–31
6vs. Florida StateW 44–20
7at SyracuseW 34–26

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Louisville with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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