This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

New Mexico

6–1 (3–0 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating10.630th of 138
SP+ offense28.457th of 138
SP+ defense18.021st of 138
PRIME7.934th of 138
Elo168035th of 138
Week 9

New Mexico at San José State

Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: New Mexico 28, San José State 11. Big Al's pick: New Mexico (88%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game37.019th
Yards per play5.9983rd
Success rate40.6%98th
Explosive play rate12.2%67th
Yards per carry5.3854th
Yards per pass attempt7.9157th
Sack rate allowed10.9%129th
3rd down conversion39.0%77th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed11.31st
Yards per play allowed4.7811th
Success rate allowed30.8%1st
Explosive plays allowed9.9%34th
Yards per carry allowed3.9416th
Yards per attempt allowed6.1329th
Sack rate9.6%10th
3rd downs allowed32.0%22nd

Players

Cade Keith (TE), Darren Agu (DE), Kiefer Sibley (RB), Scottre Humphrey (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Central MichiganW 38–7
2vs. MercyhurstW 70–7
3at OklahomaL 6–14
4at New Mexico StateW 42–18
5vs. UTEPW 61–7
7at Hawai'iW 21–10
8vs. North Dakota StateW 21–16

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare New Mexico with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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