This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Jacksonville State

5–2 (3–0 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-0.575th of 138
SP+ offense27.068th of 138
SP+ defense27.483rd of 138
PRIME-5.593rd of 138
Elo143084th of 138
Week 9

Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Jacksonville State 31, New Mexico State 19. Big Al's pick: Jacksonville State (69%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game27.379th
Yards per play6.6535th
Success rate47.7%29th
Explosive play rate14.1%33rd
Yards per carry5.1073rd
Yards per pass attempt8.5434th
Sack rate allowed3.4%27th
3rd down conversion42.4%57th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed22.756th
Yards per play allowed5.5456th
Success rate allowed42.0%70th
Explosive plays allowed10.3%49th
Yards per carry allowed4.6155th
Yards per attempt allowed6.8658th
Sack rate4.4%109th
3rd downs allowed47.3%127th

Players

Caden Creel (QB), Darius Cannon (WR), Deondre Johnson (WR), Jamill Williams (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Eastern KentuckyW 49–7
1at North Dakota StateL 7–33
2at OhioL 27–29
3vs. Georgia SouthernW 31–27
4vs. Middle TennesseeW 23–13
6at Kennesaw StateW 27–26
7vs. Florida InternationalW 27–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Jacksonville State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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