This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Central Michigan

3–5 (1–3 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-16.4125th of 138
SP+ offense14.7133rd of 138
SP+ defense30.7107th of 138
PRIME-14.7127th of 138
Elo1224120th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game17.9132nd
Yards per play4.81132nd
Success rate36.6%128th
Explosive play rate7.1%134th
Yards per carry5.2861st
Yards per pass attempt4.59133rd
Sack rate allowed8.1%114th
3rd down conversion33.9%110th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.989th
Yards per play allowed6.2597th
Success rate allowed49.0%128th
Explosive plays allowed12.1%86th
Yards per carry allowed5.2595th
Yards per attempt allowed8.2499th
Sack rate6.7%56th
3rd downs allowed53.1%135th

Players

Angel H Flores (QB), Jayden Clerveaux (RB), Langston Lewis (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at New MexicoL 7–38
2vs. ColgateW 13–10
3vs. WyomingW 24–10
4at MiamiL 3–52
5vs. AkronW 41–17
6at OhioL 14–31
7vs. Western MichiganL 14–21
8vs. Miami (OH)L 27–28

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Central Michigan with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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