This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Miami (OH)

5–3 (3–1 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-4.094th of 138
SP+ offense23.497th of 138
SP+ defense27.281st of 138
PRIME-9.2105th of 138
Elo1258114th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game27.080th
Yards per play6.8921st
Success rate42.4%82nd
Explosive play rate14.5%25th
Yards per carry5.4845th
Yards per pass attempt9.2918th
Sack rate allowed9.2%121st
3rd down conversion37.6%86th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.887th
Yards per play allowed5.7876th
Success rate allowed41.2%65th
Explosive plays allowed8.8%13th
Yards per carry allowed4.2130th
Yards per attempt allowed7.1272nd
Sack rate4.7%105th
3rd downs allowed39.6%79th

Players

Caleb Heavner (QB), D'Shawntae Jones (RB), David McComb (QB), Grant Lyons (LB), Lynel Billups-Williams (WR), Maleek Huggins (WR), Rodney Nelson (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at PittsburghL 14–59
2vs. Holy CrossW 45–7
3at CincinnatiL 31–35
4vs. UConnW 24–21
5vs. Bowling GreenL 20–24
6at MassachusettsW 20–19
7vs. AkronW 34–14
8at Central MichiganW 28–27

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Miami (OH) with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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