This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
FBS Independents

UConn

4–3. 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-0.374th of 138
SP+ offense29.550th of 138
SP+ defense30.0103rd of 138
PRIME-3.987th of 138
Elo149368th of 138
Week 9

UConn at Air Force

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: UConn 29, Air Force 34. Big Al's pick: Air Force (60%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game35.630th
Yards per play7.597th
Success rate48.6%24th
Explosive play rate16.5%9th
Yards per carry6.427th
Yards per pass attempt10.125th
Sack rate allowed10.2%125th
3rd down conversion42.9%55th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.967th
Yards per play allowed5.5958th
Success rate allowed39.3%51st
Explosive plays allowed9.1%16th
Yards per carry allowed3.9919th
Yards per attempt allowed6.8959th
Sack rate3.8%123rd
3rd downs allowed38.4%68th

Players

Cyncir Bowers (RB), K'Von Sherman (LB), Kalieb Osborne (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. LafayetteW 56–7
2vs. MarylandL 14–38
3at Southern MissW 48–20
4at Miami (OH)L 21–24
5vs. SyracuseL 41–42
6at TempleW 34–20
8vs. MassachusettsW 35–16

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UConn with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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