This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Clemson

4–3 (2–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating4.056th of 138
SP+ offense23.198th of 138
SP+ defense19.526th of 138
PRIME-0.170th of 138
Elo153263rd of 138
Week 9

Clemson at Florida State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Clemson 25, Florida State 28. Big Al's pick: Florida State (68%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.4111th
Yards per play5.14126th
Success rate37.1%123rd
Explosive play rate9.5%121st
Yards per carry5.1172nd
Yards per pass attempt5.52129th
Sack rate allowed6.4%89th
3rd down conversion34.8%104th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.351st
Yards per play allowed5.2025th
Success rate allowed40.3%56th
Explosive plays allowed9.3%22nd
Yards per carry allowed4.7868th
Yards per attempt allowed6.2232nd
Sack rate10.7%6th
3rd downs allowed27.3%7th

Players

Bryant Wesco Jr. (WR), Gideon Davidson (RB), T.J. Moore (WR), Tait Reynolds (QB), Tyler Brown (WR), Will Heldt (DE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at LSUL 10–51
2vs. Georgia SouthernW 22–7
3vs. North CarolinaW 28–20
4at CaliforniaW 24–10
5vs. MiamiL 13–41
7vs. Charleston SouthernW 37–0
8vs. Virginia TechL 16–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Clemson with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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