This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Western Michigan

5–3 (3–1 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-1.581st of 138
SP+ offense21.7101st of 138
SP+ defense23.444th of 138
PRIME-3.686th of 138
Elo148071st of 138
Week 9

Bowling Green at Western Michigan

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Western Michigan 30, Bowling Green 11. Big Al's pick: Western Michigan (86%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game26.685th
Yards per play6.1869th
Success rate45.3%55th
Explosive play rate12.0%76th
Yards per carry5.0376th
Yards per pass attempt8.6632nd
Sack rate allowed6.6%92nd
3rd down conversion44.7%43rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.436th
Yards per play allowed5.3136th
Success rate allowed42.5%75th
Explosive plays allowed9.9%35th
Yards per carry allowed4.4645th
Yards per attempt allowed6.6352nd
Sack rate6.7%57th
3rd downs allowed37.5%59th

Players

Aveion Chenault (WR), Broc Lowry (QB), Jalen Buckley (RB), Ofa Mataele (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at MichiganL 12–13
2vs. MonmouthW 49–14
3at RiceW 28–21
4vs. Boise StateL 7–32
5at BuffaloW 20–17
6vs. Kent StateW 38–7
7at Central MichiganW 21–14
8at ToledoL 38–45

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Western Michigan with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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