This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

James Madison

7–1 (4–1 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating12.127th of 138
SP+ offense33.031st of 138
SP+ defense21.234th of 138
PRIME1.464th of 138
Elo181714th of 138
Week 9

Troy at James Madison

Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: James Madison 39, Troy 15. Big Al's pick: James Madison (93%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game41.45th
Yards per play6.6536th
Success rate45.4%51st
Explosive play rate14.2%28th
Yards per carry5.8924th
Yards per pass attempt7.6668th
Sack rate allowed3.0%17th
3rd down conversion35.6%99th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed18.225th
Yards per play allowed5.5455th
Success rate allowed37.9%40th
Explosive plays allowed10.3%52nd
Yards per carry allowed4.3038th
Yards per attempt allowed7.1373rd
Sack rate7.6%35th
3rd downs allowed36.4%50th

Players

Braeden Wisloski (WR), Camden Coleman (QB), Cole Keller (TE), Corey Scott (WR), George Pettaway (RB), Makai Jackson (WR), Michael Scott (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. LibertyW 20–13
2vs. WagnerW 87–3
3at San Diego StateW 26–13
4at Old DominionW 46–20
5vs. MarshallW 45–17
6at Georgia SouthernW 27–24
7vs. Georgia StateW 49–22
8at App StateL 31–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare James Madison with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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