This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

App State

5–2 (2–1 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-5.396th of 138
SP+ offense23.795th of 138
SP+ defense29.398th of 138
PRIME-2.580th of 138
Elo1310106th of 138
Week 9

App State at Georgia Southern

Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET. SP+ projects App State 25, Georgia Southern 30. Big Al's pick: Georgia Southern (63%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.159th
Yards per play5.9980th
Success rate43.0%79th
Explosive play rate14.9%22nd
Yards per carry4.9980th
Yards per pass attempt7.1389th
Sack rate allowed4.1%33rd
3rd down conversion33.0%117th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.161st
Yards per play allowed5.7268th
Success rate allowed42.7%78th
Explosive plays allowed10.3%50th
Yards per carry allowed3.8612th
Yards per attempt allowed8.0894th
Sack rate4.0%120th
3rd downs allowed35.3%44th

Players

Caleb Sandstrom (DL), Darrin Fugitt (TE), Jaquari Lewis (RB), Malachi Singleton (QB), Nate Branch (WR), Sam Pickett III (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. MaineW 55–3
2at East CarolinaW 27–24
3vs. CharlotteW 26–21
4at NC StateL 31–41
6vs. Old DominionL 3–10
7at Coastal CarolinaW 35–32
8vs. James MadisonW 34–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare App State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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