This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

Georgia Southern

3–4 (2–1 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-2.585th of 138
SP+ offense25.782nd of 138
SP+ defense27.785th of 138
PRIME-2.479th of 138
Elo137492nd of 138
Week 9

App State at Georgia Southern

Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Georgia Southern 30, App State 25. Big Al's pick: Georgia Southern (63%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game24.497th
Yards per play6.2860th
Success rate45.3%52nd
Explosive play rate12.6%60th
Yards per carry4.9881st
Yards per pass attempt7.3183rd
Sack rate allowed2.5%11th
3rd down conversion41.3%64th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.058th
Yards per play allowed5.4147th
Success rate allowed37.9%41st
Explosive plays allowed11.0%68th
Yards per carry allowed4.3839th
Yards per attempt allowed6.9864th
Sack rate8.1%25th
3rd downs allowed33.7%34th

Players

Alex Taylor (WR), Andre Greene Jr. (WR), Josh Dallas (WR), Max Johnson (QB), River Helms (TE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Charleston SouthernW 31–0
2at ClemsonL 7–22
3at Jacksonville StateL 27–31
4vs. HoustonL 28–42
5at Coastal CarolinaW 31–24
6vs. James MadisonL 24–27
7at Old DominionW 23–15

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Georgia Southern with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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