This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

Old Dominion

2–6 (1–4 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-11.2113th of 138
SP+ offense15.5128th of 138
SP+ defense26.271st of 138
PRIME-18.3133rd of 138
Elo1171126th of 138
Week 9

Marshall at Old Dominion

Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Old Dominion 28, Marshall 23. Big Al's pick: Marshall (55%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game15.5133rd
Yards per play5.07129th
Success rate33.5%134th
Explosive play rate9.3%124th
Yards per carry4.16124th
Yards per pass attempt7.5573rd
Sack rate allowed18.2%133rd
3rd down conversion36.4%95th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed26.897th
Yards per play allowed5.0921st
Success rate allowed36.3%21st
Explosive plays allowed9.8%31st
Yards per carry allowed4.4143rd
Yards per attempt allowed5.9923rd
Sack rate5.2%91st
3rd downs allowed34.4%38th

Players

Devin Roche (RB), Jackson Forrest (LB), Javen Gibson (DL), Josh Rodriguez (WR), Quinn Henicle (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Norfolk StateW 31–10
2at Virginia TechL 21–44
3vs. East CarolinaL 17–20
4vs. James MadisonL 20–46
5at Georgia StateL 10–42
6at App StateW 10–3
7vs. Georgia SouthernL 15–23
8at Louisiana TechL 0–26

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Old Dominion with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.