This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Liberty

6–1 (3–0 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating7.546th of 138
SP+ offense29.053rd of 138
SP+ defense21.536th of 138
PRIME7.735th of 138
Elo177018th of 138
Week 9

Florida International at Liberty

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Liberty 28, Florida International 12. Big Al's pick: Liberty (90%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game31.650th
Yards per play7.3812th
Success rate51.4%12th
Explosive play rate16.5%8th
Yards per carry6.0716th
Yards per pass attempt10.874th
Sack rate allowed8.2%115th
3rd down conversion51.5%10th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed14.07th
Yards per play allowed4.7810th
Success rate allowed31.9%3rd
Explosive plays allowed10.5%56th
Yards per carry allowed4.6557th
Yards per attempt allowed5.134th
Sack rate5.0%97th
3rd downs allowed26.9%4th

Players

Deshawn Purdie (QB), Kam Davis (RB), Peyton Jones (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at James MadisonL 13–20
2vs. Gardner-WebbW 24–23
3vs. Ball StateW 51–15
4at Coastal CarolinaW 34–17
5at DelawareW 30–14
6vs. Sam HoustonW 35–3
8at Kennesaw StateW 34–6

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Liberty with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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