This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Middle Tennessee

4–3 (2–1 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-17.3129th of 138
SP+ offense17.6117th of 138
SP+ defense35.0127th of 138
PRIME-13.4121st of 138
Elo1172124th of 138
Week 9

Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee

Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Middle Tennessee 23, Kennesaw State 27. Big Al's pick: Kennesaw State (52%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game23.3103rd
Yards per play——
Success rate——
Explosive play rate——
Yards per carry——
Yards per pass attempt——
Sack rate allowed——
3rd down conversion——

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed27.6100th
Yards per play allowed6.0485th
Success rate allowed44.5%96th
Explosive plays allowed13.4%108th
Yards per carry allowed6.00129th
Yards per attempt allowed6.3134th
Sack rate3.6%124th
3rd downs allowed35.2%43rd

Players

Cam'Ron Lacy (WR), Roman Gagliano (QB), Terrence Brown Jr. ().

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Murray StateW 38–14
2at MarshallL 26–28
3vs. NevadaW 27–20
4at Jacksonville StateL 13–23
5at KansasL 0–55
7vs. DelawareW 33–30
8at Florida InternationalW 26–23

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Middle Tennessee with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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