This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

North Dakota State

6–2 (3–2 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating9.535th of 138
SP+ offense26.179th of 138
SP+ defense16.919th of 138
PRIME4.250th of 138
Elo163141st of 138
Week 9

UTEP at North Dakota State

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: North Dakota State 39, UTEP 2. Big Al's pick: North Dakota State (99%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game27.877th
Yards per play5.69104th
Success rate40.1%103rd
Explosive play rate12.5%62nd
Yards per carry4.62110th
Yards per pass attempt7.5075th
Sack rate allowed4.7%47th
3rd down conversion42.2%58th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed12.53rd
Yards per play allowed4.739th
Success rate allowed36.5%23rd
Explosive plays allowed10.1%41st
Yards per carry allowed4.2131st
Yards per attempt allowed5.8116th
Sack rate7.1%46th
3rd downs allowed34.3%37th

Players

DJ Scott (RB), Jackson Williams (WR), Kelton McCaslin (DE), Myles Mitchell (RB), Nathan Hayes (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. FordhamW 38–0
1vs. Jacksonville StateW 33–7
2at Air ForceW 38–32
3at Sacramento StateW 31–10
5vs. WyomingW 28–0
6at UNLVL 7–13
7vs. NevadaW 31–17
8at New MexicoL 16–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare North Dakota State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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