This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Duke

5–2 (2–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating6.550th of 138
SP+ offense30.144th of 138
SP+ defense23.750th of 138
PRIME4.152nd of 138
Elo163340th of 138
Week 9

Boston College at Duke

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Duke 30, Boston College 18. Big Al's pick: Duke (74%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game29.962nd
Yards per play6.0279th
Success rate38.9%114th
Explosive play rate13.2%42nd
Yards per carry5.5042nd
Yards per pass attempt6.55112th
Sack rate allowed0.8%1st
3rd down conversion38.3%82nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.017th
Yards per play allowed5.7572nd
Success rate allowed42.3%73rd
Explosive plays allowed9.8%30th
Yards per carry allowed4.2333rd
Yards per attempt allowed8.1595th
Sack rate8.7%19th
3rd downs allowed33.3%30th

Players

Bradley Gompers (LB), CJ Campbell (RB), Jeremiah Hasley (TE), Jonah Burton (WR), Kevin O'Connor (DE), Nate Sheppard (RB), Nico Brown (WR), Tyshon Reed (DE), Walker Eget (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. TulaneW 17–3
2at IllinoisW 31–27
3vs. StanfordW 35–7
4vs. William & MaryW 62–7
6at Georgia TechL 25–28
7vs. North CarolinaL 20–24
8at VirginiaW 19–16

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Duke with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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