This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

Western Kentucky

3–4 (2–1 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-11.2116th of 138
SP+ offense18.7114th of 138
SP+ defense30.4106th of 138
PRIME-13.7125th of 138
Elo1269111th of 138
Week 9

Delaware at Western Kentucky

Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Western Kentucky 28, Delaware 24. Big Al's pick: Delaware (49%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.3113th
Yards per play5.8096th
Success rate41.0%93rd
Explosive play rate10.2%115th
Yards per carry4.48115th
Yards per pass attempt7.7165th
Sack rate allowed6.9%97th
3rd down conversion48.1%17th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.6117th
Yards per play allowed5.7369th
Success rate allowed36.5%24th
Explosive plays allowed10.1%44th
Yards per carry allowed6.27133rd
Yards per attempt allowed5.468th
Sack rate3.5%126th
3rd downs allowed27.6%8th

Players

Ajay Allen (RB), Brock Glenn (QB), Jonathan Stafford Jr. (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at NevadaL 14–49
2at GeorgiaL 20–70
3at IndianaL 0–38
4vs. MercyhurstW 52–7
5at New Mexico StateL 13–34
6vs. Missouri StateW 34–13
7at Sam HoustonW 16–3

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Western Kentucky with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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