This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

Wyoming

5–3 (4–1 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-9.3110th of 138
SP+ offense16.4126th of 138
SP+ defense25.967th of 138
PRIME-9.8106th of 138
Elo136398th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game19.5127th
Yards per play6.4348th
Success rate48.6%25th
Explosive play rate15.1%19th
Yards per carry6.0218th
Yards per pass attempt7.8760th
Sack rate allowed10.0%124th
3rd down conversion38.8%78th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.033rd
Yards per play allowed5.4146th
Success rate allowed43.4%87th
Explosive plays allowed10.2%47th
Yards per carry allowed5.60112th
Yards per attempt allowed5.6012th
Sack rate6.8%53rd
3rd downs allowed38.6%71st

Players

Esaia Bogar (DE), Jake Wilson (TE), Markell Holman (RB), Samuel Harris (RB), Tyler Hughes (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Colorado StateL 13–35
2vs. Northern ColoradoW 21–13
3at Central MichiganL 10–24
4vs. Hawai'iW 27–10
5at North Dakota StateL 0–28
6at San José StateW 16–13
7vs. Northern IllinoisW 41–23
8vs. Air ForceW 28–14

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Wyoming with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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