College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET, Bridgeforth Stadium.
Big Al's pick: James Madison, 93% to win.
| Kickoff | Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Where | Bridgeforth Stadium |
| Weather | 60°, clear, wind 5 mph |
| Line | James Madison −21, total 49.5 |
| Line movement | Opened James Madison −17.5; moved 3.5 points toward James Madison. Total opened 52.5, down 3. |
| Series | James Madison leads 2–0 |
| Last meeting | James Madison 31–14 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | James Madison by 23.3 | 95% | 50 |
| PRIME | James Madison by 15.5 | 87% | |
| Elo | James Madison | 96% | |
| The line | James Madison −21, opened −17.5 | 49.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: James Madison. 93% to win
All three ratings favor James Madison, by 15.5 to 23.3 points, and it isn't close. James Madison's best matchup is its pass protection, 17th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Troy's pass rush at 118th. Troy's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 17th in 3rd downs allowed, against James Madison's 3rd down offense at 99th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 19.1 (112th) | 28.8 (91st) |
| James Madison | 32.5 (33rd) | 21.7 (37th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 54.4% (83rd) | 53.2% (63rd) |
| James Madison | 57.1% (62nd) | 48.5% (31st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 41.9% (87th) | 10.5% (111th) |
| James Madison | 45.4% (51st) | 14.2% (28th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 38.5% (48th) | 10.2% (48th) |
| James Madison | 37.9% (40th) | 10.3% (52nd) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 5.53 (40th) | 7.19 (87th) |
| James Madison | 5.89 (24th) | 7.66 (68th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Troy | 37.0% (89th) | 30.3% (17th) |
| James Madison | 35.6% (99th) | 36.4% (50th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Troy and James Madison are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Will Crowder, Troy | 37.4% (140th) | 1,174 (92nd) |
| Camden Coleman, James Madison | 45.2% (55th) | 1,574 (48th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Griffin, Troy | 4.6 (222nd) | 40.2% (233rd) |
| George Pettaway, James Madison | 6.5 (49th) | 50.8% (59th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| TK Keyes, Troy | 4 (402nd) | 288 (204th) |
| Jace Petty, Troy | 3 (496th) | 174 (424th) |
| Makai Jackson, James Madison | 12 (44th) | 540 (40th) |
| Corey Scott, James Madison | 11 (60th) | 371 (122nd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Kelly, James Madison | 0 | 4 | 0 | 47th |
| JT Hooten, James Madison | 2 | 1 | 0 | 155th |
| Nakian Jackson, James Madison | 2 | 0 | 1 | 156th |
| Donnie Smith, Troy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 535th |
| Ty Clemons, Troy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 536th |
| Bryce Steele, Troy | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1395th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has James Madison 20.8 points better (29th to 108th). PRIME also has James Madison ahead, by 13.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has James Madison ahead (14th to 105th).
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -9.9 (108th) | 10.9 (29th) |
| SP+ offense | 19.1 (112th) | 32.5 (33rd) |
| SP+ defense | 28.8 (91st) | 21.7 (37th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.2 (92nd) | 0.1 (54th) |
| PRIME net | -11.6 (114th) | 1.4 (64th) |
| PRIME offense | -4.75 (103rd) | -0.25 (64th) |
| PRIME defense | -5.05 (108th) | 0.86 (59th) |
| PRIME SOS | -8.1 (125th) | -6.5 (105th) |
| PRIME SOR | -1.8 (115th) | 1.8 (22nd) |
| Elo | 1314 (105th) | 1817 (14th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Troy's offense ranks 102nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the James Madison defense it faces ranks 61st in EPA per play allowed. James Madison's offense ranks 22nd against Troy's 106th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Troy's defense. The biggest edge on the board is James Madison's passing game: 23rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against Troy's 92nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Troy's defense falls from 52nd to 106th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.06 (102nd) | +0.19 (22nd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.12 (118th) | +0.28 (23rd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.06 (68th) | +0.10 (39th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 39.7% (93rd) | 42.7% (58th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 46.3% (76th) | 46.7% (70th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 27.5% (121st) | 33.0% (21st) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.95 (37th) | 0.93 (94th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.96 (65th) | 3.07 (39th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.17 (56th) | 1.37 (13th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.16 (106th) | +0.09 (61st) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.23 (92nd) | +0.17 (54th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.10 (99th) | +0.01 (31st) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 45.8% (115th) | 41.9% (70th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (27th) | 0.89 (8th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.05 (98th) | 2.97 (71st) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.16 (81st) | 0.96 (17th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Troy is better running (56th in EPA per rush) than throwing (124th). James Madison's run defense ranks 20th, so the defense has the better of it. James Madison is about as good throwing (31st in EPA per pass) as running (35th).
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 (100th) | +0.24 (25th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.01 (124th) | +0.36 (31st) |
| EPA per rush | +0.13 (56th) | +0.17 (35th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.18 (125th) | +0.43 (81st) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 (52nd) | +0.02 (32nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.10 (43rd) | +0.12 (50th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.08 (76th) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.30 (41st) | +0.45 (86th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Troy is outscored by 2.0 a game, and James Madison by 23.2. Troy's offense ranks 105th in scoring, and the James Madison defense it faces ranks 25th in points allowed. James Madison's offense ranks 5th against Troy's 76th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Troy's defense.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 22.9 (105th) | 41.4 (5th) |
| Points allowed | 24.9 (76th) | 18.2 (25th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Troy has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 40th, against a defense ranked 38th in yards per carry allowed. James Madison's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 24th in yards per carry, and Troy's defense ranks 56th in yards per carry allowed.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 179.7 (118th) | 249.9 (46th) |
| Rush yards / game | 211.7 (23rd) | 205.4 (27th) |
| Yards per play | 5.98 (85th) | 6.65 (36th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.53 (40th) | 5.89 (24th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.19 (87th) | 7.66 (68th) |
| Completion % | 62.9% (71st) | 60.5% (84th) |
| Success rate | 41.9% (87th) | 45.4% (51st) |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% (111th) | 14.2% (28th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 37.0% (89th) | 35.6% (99th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 7.9% (108th) | 3.0% (17th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.9% (93rd) | 0.8% (12th) |
| SUPLEX | 54.4% (83rd) | 57.1% (62nd) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Troy's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 17th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and James Madison's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (99th). That's a mismatch. James Madison's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 35th in sack rate, and Troy's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (108th). That's a mismatch.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 208.7 (66th) | 216.6 (78th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 133.3 (44th) | 119.8 (27th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 (41st) | 5.54 (55th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.62 (56th) | 4.30 (38th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.16 (30th) | 7.13 (73rd) |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% (48th) | 37.9% (40th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2% (48th) | 10.3% (52nd) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 30.3% (17th) | 36.4% (50th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 4.0% (118th) | 7.6% (35th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.7% (100th) | 2.9% (55th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 53.2% (63rd) | 48.5% (31st) |
What opponents managed against them.
James Madison is +0.8 in turnover margin a game and Troy is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for James Madison. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | 0.25 (11th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.57 (76th) | 0.50 (69th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.29 (71st) | 0.75 (21st) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.57 (84th) | 0.88 (38th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.63 (40th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.14 (66th) | 1.50 (36th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.1 (76th) | +0.8 (16th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Troy has the more talented roster (96th in the 247Sports talent composite; James Madison is 101st). But James Madison plays further above its talent: +15.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Troy's −5.7.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 596.2 (96th) | 588.3 (101st) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 4.2% (98th) | 6.6% (87th) |
| Players on roster | 104 (112th) | 109 (82nd) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 71 (93rd) | 61 (118th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 3 (94th) | 4 (88th) |
| 3-star players | 64 (56th) | 53 (99th) |
| Below 3-star | 4 (38th) | 4 (38th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 15 (114th) | 41 (11th) |
| Transfer share | 21.1% (102nd) | 67.2% (7th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -5.7 (105th) | +15.6 (7th) |
| Returning production | 35.3% (79th) | 8.0% (122nd) |
| Returning passing production | 102.8% (7th) | 9.3% (84th) |
| Returning rushing production | 135.7% (7th) | 6.6% (106th) |
| Returning receiving production | 11.6% (121st) | 8.6% (128th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 76 (76th) | 80 (80th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 85.2 (79th) | 111.2 (114th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Troy is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). James Madison is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.1). Troy's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Troy | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -0.5 (89th) | +3.0 (4th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.6 (17th) | +1.7 (12th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.3 (92nd) | -0.8 (118th) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.8 (101st) | +2.1 (6th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.0 (119th) | -0.1 (72nd) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks James Madison, 93% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. James Madison's best matchup is its pass protection, 17th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Troy's pass rush at 118th.
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET at Bridgeforth Stadium, on ESPN2.
DraftKings has James Madison −21, total 49.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
James Madison leads 2–0. Last meeting: James Madison won 31–14 in 2025.
Troy's is Will Crowder (1,174 passing yards this season); James Madison's is Camden Coleman (1,574 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Troy and James Madison: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.