College football, 2026 season
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
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Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET, Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Louisiana Tech, 62% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Where | Hancock Whitney Stadium |
| Weather | 78°, cloudy, wind 8 mph |
| Line | Louisiana Tech −5.5, total 58.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Louisiana Tech −3.5; moved 2 points toward Louisiana Tech. Total opened 56.5, up 2. |
| Series | Louisiana Tech leads 2–1 |
| Last meeting | South Alabama 38–14 in 2022 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisiana Tech by 6.4 | 68% | 63 |
| PRIME | Louisiana Tech by 6.4 | 68% | |
| Elo | Louisiana Tech | 56% | |
| The line | Louisiana Tech −5.5, opened −3.5 | 58.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Louisiana Tech. 64% to win
All three ratings favor Louisiana Tech, by 6.4 points. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its scoring offense, 46th in points per game, against South Alabama's scoring defense at 123rd. South Alabama's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 33rd in 3rd down conversion, against Louisiana Tech's 3rd down defense at 76th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 24.6 (85th) | 26.8 (74th) |
| South Alabama | 26.5 (72nd) | 37.5 (133rd) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 57.9% (53rd) | 47.2% (26th) |
| South Alabama | 57.6% (58th) | 64.8% (134th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 41.6% (88th) | 12.4% (65th) |
| South Alabama | 46.4% (37th) | 13.0% (47th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 36.3% (22nd) | 11.0% (68th) |
| South Alabama | 47.4% (119th) | 13.6% (111th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 4.83 (92nd) | 8.08 (47th) |
| South Alabama | 5.25 (67th) | 9.67 (7th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 44.1% (45th) | 39.1% (76th) |
| South Alabama | 45.9% (33rd) | 44.4% (110th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisiana Tech and South Alabama are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Baker, Louisiana Tech | 46.6% (45th) | 1,172 (93rd) |
| Jared Hollins, South Alabama | 41.7% (90th) | 798 (123rd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dylone Brooks, Louisiana Tech | — (—) | — (—) |
| PJ Martin, South Alabama | 4.4 (252nd) | 39.2% (251st) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Mickens, Louisiana Tech | 10 (85th) | 586 (31st) |
| Eli Finley, Louisiana Tech | 13 (34th) | 462 (62nd) |
| Anthony Eager, South Alabama | 7 (174th) | 281 (216th) |
| Jeremiah Jones-Thomas, South Alabama | 3 (488th) | 177 (411th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alonzo Jackson Jr., Louisiana Tech | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2nd |
| Jadon Mayfield, Louisiana Tech | 3 | 0 | 1 | 54th |
| Damyrion Darby, South Alabama | 1 | 3 | 0 | 78th |
| Jordan McRae, Louisiana Tech | 0 | 3 | 0 | 166th |
| Christian Ross, South Alabama | 0 | 0 | 2 | 502nd |
| Masey Lewis, South Alabama | 0 | 1 | 1 | 503rd |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana Tech 8.9 points better (84th to 115th). PRIME also has Louisiana Tech ahead, by 8.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana Tech ahead (78th to 100th).
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -2.6 (84th) | -11.5 (115th) |
| SP+ offense | 24.6 (85th) | 26.5 (72nd) |
| SP+ defense | 26.8 (74th) | 37.5 (133rd) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.3 (104th) | -0.5 (124th) |
| PRIME net | 0.5 (66th) | -8.4 (100th) |
| PRIME offense | -0.55 (70th) | 2.25 (44th) |
| PRIME defense | 1.64 (53rd) | -11.05 (133rd) |
| PRIME SOS | -5.0 (96th) | -6.8 (108th) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.7 (49th) | -0.6 (86th) |
| Elo | 1450 (78th) | 1354 (100th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 71st in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 127th in EPA per play allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 34th against Louisiana Tech's 21st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against South Alabama's defense. The biggest edge on the board is South Alabama's big plays: 7th in adjusted explosiveness, against Louisiana Tech's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.10 (71st) | +0.16 (34th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.22 (42nd) | +0.24 (30th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.02 (114th) | +0.13 (19th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 41.5% (68th) | 41.4% (71st) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 45.1% (97th) | 46.4% (75th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 32.4% (29th) | 31.7% (40th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.96 (28th) | 0.98 (7th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.77 (122nd) | 2.94 (76th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.13 (71st) | 1.14 (63rd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.03 (21st) | +0.21 (127th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.09 (10th) | +0.24 (98th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.05 (53rd) | +0.16 (131st) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 39.6% (35th) | 49.9% (136th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.97 (124th) | 0.98 (129th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.70 (9th) | 3.07 (107th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.25 (98th) | 1.63 (137th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Louisiana Tech is better throwing (30th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). South Alabama's pass defense ranks 106th, so that's a mismatch. South Alabama is better running (27th in EPA per rush) than throwing (43rd). Louisiana Tech's run defense ranks 66th, so that's an edge. On third down, Louisiana Tech has the edge: its offense ranks 31st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 112th.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 (55th) | +0.19 (45th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.37 (30th) | +0.30 (43rd) |
| EPA per rush | +0.02 (103rd) | +0.19 (27th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.60 (31st) | +0.45 (71st) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 (32nd) | +0.24 (124th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | 0.00 (13th) | +0.29 (106th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.06 (66th) | +0.21 (128th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.31 (43rd) | +0.54 (112th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Louisiana Tech outscores FBS opponents by 11.3 a game, and South Alabama by 2.7. Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 46th in scoring, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 123rd in points allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 33rd against Louisiana Tech's 44th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against South Alabama's defense.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 32.3 (46th) | 35.1 (33rd) |
| Points allowed | 21.0 (44th) | 32.4 (123rd) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Louisiana Tech's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 53rd in SUPLEX, and South Alabama's defense ranks 134th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. South Alabama's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 33rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Louisiana Tech's defense ranks 76th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 252.9 (44th) | 204.7 (97th) |
| Rush yards / game | 159.3 (81st) | 241.3 (8th) |
| Yards per play | 6.19 (66th) | 6.57 (38th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.83 (92nd) | 5.25 (67th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.08 (47th) | 9.67 (7th) |
| Completion % | 69.4% (33rd) | 66.1% (48th) |
| Success rate | 41.6% (88th) | 46.4% (37th) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% (65th) | 13.0% (47th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.1% (45th) | 45.9% (33rd) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 6.8% (95th) | 3.0% (19th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.4% (32nd) | 0.8% (13th) |
| SUPLEX | 57.9% (53rd) | 57.6% (58th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Louisiana Tech's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 26th in SUPLEX allowed, and South Alabama's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (58th).
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 196.0 (44th) | 272.8 (130th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 142.3 (59th) | 125.3 (32nd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41 (45th) | 6.79 (117th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.27 (36th) | 5.41 (106th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.34 (74th) | 8.02 (92nd) |
| Success rate allowed | 36.3% (22nd) | 47.4% (119th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% (68th) | 13.6% (111th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 39.1% (76th) | 44.4% (110th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 8.8% (17th) | 4.2% (116th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 5.3% (6th) | 2.9% (53rd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 47.2% (26th) | 64.8% (134th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Louisiana Tech is +0.9 a game and South Alabama +1.0. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and South Alabama's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.6 a game).
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.43 (26th) | 0.43 (26th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.71 (99th) | 0.14 (3rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.14 (53rd) | 0.57 (7th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.43 (6th) | 0.86 (45th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.71 (22nd) |
| Takeaways / game | 2.00 (6th) | 1.57 (27th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.9 (15th) | +1.0 (9th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
South Alabama has the more talented roster (107th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisiana Tech is 124th). But Louisiana Tech plays further above its talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to South Alabama's −5.9.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 543.0 (124th) | 573.4 (107th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 1.7% (120th) | 0.0% (126th) |
| Players on roster | 108 (87th) | 117 (29th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 58 (123rd) | 70 (98th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 1 (119th) | 0 (126th) |
| 3-star players | 54 (95th) | 70 (28th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 11 (127th) | 12 (124th) |
| Transfer share | 19.0% (113th) | 17.1% (118th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +4.9 (38th) | -5.9 (106th) |
| Returning production | 63.9% (37th) | 78.6% (14th) |
| Returning passing production | 99.1% (19th) | 95.1% (29th) |
| Returning rushing production | 78.5% (41st) | 61.7% (54th) |
| Returning receiving production | 43.9% (57th) | 80.2% (12th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 99 (99th) | 77 (77th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 100.0 (103rd) | 92.2 (87th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Louisiana Tech is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.1). South Alabama is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Louisiana Tech's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +1.5 (30th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.7 (55th) | +1.3 (26th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.6 (108th) | -0.5 (100th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.3 (57th) | -1.1 (116th) |
| Luck BAWA | +1.1 (8th) | +0.8 (24th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Louisiana Tech, 64% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its scoring offense, 46th in points per game, against South Alabama's scoring defense at 123rd.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium, on ESPN+.
DraftKings has Louisiana Tech −5.5, total 58.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Louisiana Tech leads 2–1. Last meeting: South Alabama won 38–14 in 2022.
Louisiana Tech's is Blake Baker (1,172 passing yards this season); South Alabama's is Jared Hollins (798 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Louisiana Tech and South Alabama: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.