College football, 2026 season
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
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| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
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Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Marshall, 55% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Where | S.B. Ballard Stadium |
| Weather | 65°, clear, wind 12 mph |
| Line | Marshall −2.5, total 43.5 |
| Line movement | Total opened 46.5, down 3. |
| Series | Marshall leads 10–1 |
| Last meeting | Marshall 48–24 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Marshall by 1.5 | 54% | 46 |
| PRIME | Marshall by 3.8 | 61% | |
| Elo | Marshall | 68% | |
| The line | Marshall −2.5 | 43.5, opened 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Marshall. 61% to win
All three ratings favor Marshall, by 1.5 to 3.8 points. Old Dominion's way back in is its run defense, 23rd in EPA per rush allowed, against Marshall's run game at 96th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 23.7 (92nd) | 34.4 (125th) |
| Old Dominion | 13.4 (135th) | 27.5 (79th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | — | 57.9% (98th) |
| Old Dominion | 44.4% (131st) | 48.6% (32nd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | — | — |
| Old Dominion | 33.5% (134th) | 9.3% (124th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 46.4% (115th) | 13.5% (109th) |
| Old Dominion | 36.3% (21st) | 9.8% (31st) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | — | — |
| Old Dominion | 4.16 (124th) | 7.55 (73rd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall | — | 43.7% (104th) |
| Old Dominion | 36.4% (95th) | 34.4% (38th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Marshall and Old Dominion are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Zion Turner, Marshall | 43.2% (79th) | 555 (141st) |
| Quinn Henicle, Old Dominion | 31.3% (166th) | 650 (135th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Joshon Barbie, Marshall | 4.4 (250th) | 44.7% (153rd) |
| Devin Roche, Old Dominion | 3.8 (306th) | 32.4% (324th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Norton, Marshall | 4 (363rd) | 171 (426th) |
| Owen Sweeney, Marshall | 4 (364th) | 108 (567th) |
| TJ Johnson, Old Dominion | 3 (479th) | 265 (247th) |
| Josh Rodriguez, Old Dominion | 5 (295th) | 238 (290th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crutchfield, Old Dominion | 1 | 2 | 1 | 72nd |
| Jackson Forrest, Old Dominion | 3 | 0 | 1 | 73rd |
| Javen Gibson, Old Dominion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 74th |
| Braydin Ward, Marshall | 0 | 0 | 1 | 987th |
| Caleb Clark-Glover, Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 988th |
| Cannon Lewis, Marshall | 0 | 0 | 1 | 989th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Marshall 4.0 points better (111th to 124th). PRIME also has Marshall ahead, by 6.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Marshall ahead (99th to 125th).
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -10.7 (111th) | -14.7 (124th) |
| SP+ offense | 23.7 (92nd) | 13.4 (135th) |
| SP+ defense | 34.4 (125th) | 27.5 (79th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.1 (80th) | -0.6 (131st) |
| PRIME net | -12.0 (118th) | -18.3 (133rd) |
| PRIME offense | -6.66 (115th) | -15.24 (137th) |
| PRIME defense | -4.74 (103rd) | -0.92 (78th) |
| PRIME SOS | -7.8 (122nd) | -2.7 (72nd) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.8 (93rd) | -2.5 (125th) |
| Elo | 1355 (99th) | 1171 (125th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Marshall's offense ranks 90th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Old Dominion defense it faces ranks 32nd in EPA per play allowed. Old Dominion's offense ranks 138th against Marshall's 118th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Old Dominion's backs in the open field: 88th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Marshall's 117th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Marshall's offense falls from 63rd to 90th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.07 (90th) | −0.10 (138th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.17 (82nd) | +0.02 (138th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.04 (96th) | −0.08 (138th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 41.4% (72nd) | 31.1% (138th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.8% (47th) | 36.5% (138th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.4% (69th) | 28.2% (114th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.92 (107th) | 0.92 (102nd) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.92 (85th) | 2.31 (138th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.08 (87th) | 1.07 (88th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (118th) | +0.05 (32nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.27 (115th) | +0.17 (60th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.12 (114th) | +0.01 (23rd) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 45.2% (109th) | 39.7% (36th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (44th) | 0.89 (9th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 (114th) | 2.87 (42nd) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.33 (117th) | 0.87 (7th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Marshall is about as good throwing (64th in EPA per pass) as running (75th). Old Dominion is about as good throwing (137th in EPA per pass) as running (134th). On third down, Marshall has the edge: its offense ranks 17th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 83rd.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 (63rd) | −0.15 (138th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.23 (64th) | −0.13 (137th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.09 (75th) | −0.15 (134th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.66 (17th) | +0.26 (113th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25 (129th) | +0.03 (36th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.44 (134th) | +0.20 (80th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.14 (104th) | −0.09 (13th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.63 (128th) | +0.43 (83rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Marshall is outscored by 9.0 a game, and Old Dominion is outscored by 11.3. Marshall's offense ranks 109th in scoring, and the Old Dominion defense it faces ranks 97th in points allowed. Old Dominion's offense ranks 133rd against Marshall's 118th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 21.7 (109th) | 15.5 (133rd) |
| Points allowed | 30.7 (118th) | 26.8 (97th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Old Dominion has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 95th, against a defense ranked 104th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | — () | 152.9 (127th) |
| Rush yards / game | — () | 127.0 (119th) |
| Yards per play | — () | 5.07 (129th) |
| Yards per carry | — () | 4.16 (124th) |
| Yards per attempt | — () | 7.55 (73rd) |
| Completion % | — () | 64.8% (61st) |
| Success rate | — () | 33.5% (134th) |
| Explosive play rate | — () | 9.3% (124th) |
| 3rd down conversion | — () | 36.4% (95th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | — () | 18.2% (133rd) |
| INT rate (thrown) | — () | 3.7% (118th) |
| SUPLEX | — () | 44.4% (131st) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Marshall's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 81st in interception rate, and Old Dominion's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (118th).
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 243.7 (112th) | 217.8 (84th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 190.0 (115th) | 145.4 (63rd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.08 (129th) | 5.09 (21st) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.78 (122nd) | 4.41 (43rd) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.84 (117th) | 5.99 (23rd) |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% (115th) | 36.3% (21st) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% (109th) | 9.8% (31st) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 43.7% (104th) | 34.4% (38th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 3.0% (130th) | 5.2% (91st) |
| INT rate (generated) | 2.1% (81st) | 1.7% (99th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 57.9% (98th) | 48.6% (32nd) |
What opponents managed against them.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | — () | 0.75 (75th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | — () | 1.25 (133rd) |
| Giveaways / game | — () | 2.00 (128th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.57 (84th) | 0.63 (77th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.00 (131st) | 0.88 (9th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.57 (126th) | 1.50 (36th) |
| Turnover margin / game | — () | -0.5 (103rd) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Marshall has the more talented roster (97th in the 247Sports talent composite; Old Dominion is 122nd). Marshall also plays further above its talent: −6.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Old Dominion's −7.3.
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 594.7 (97th) | 544.3 (122nd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 6.2% (89th) | 0.0% (126th) |
| Players on roster | 105 (106th) | 103 (119th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 65 (114th) | 67 (106th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 4 (88th) | 0 (126th) |
| 3-star players | 60 (74th) | 62 (64th) |
| Below 3-star | 1 (86th) | 5 (29th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 28 (41st) | 16 (111th) |
| Transfer share | 43.1% (28th) | 23.9% (93rd) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -6.4 (107th) | -7.3 (113th) |
| Returning production | 98.8% (2nd) | 9.2% (120th) |
| Returning passing production | 100.2% (10th) | -1.9% (123rd) |
| Returning rushing production | 210.4% (4th) | 9.8% (104th) |
| Returning receiving production | 91.4% (6th) | 18.0% (107th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 123 (123rd) | 96 (96th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 117.8 (123rd) | 111.2 (114th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Marshall is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Old Dominion is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−1.2).
| Marshall | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | -2.0 (125th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.3 (27th) | +0.7 (56th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.2 (82nd) | -1.2 (130th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.1 (114th) | -1.2 (117th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.5 (39th) | -0.3 (86th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Marshall, 61% to win. All three ratings favor the same team.
Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET at S.B. Ballard Stadium, on ESPN+.
DraftKings has Marshall −2.5, total 43.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Marshall leads 10–1. Last meeting: Marshall won 48–24 in 2025.
Marshall's is Zion Turner (555 passing yards this season); Old Dominion's is Quinn Henicle (650 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Marshall and Old Dominion: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.