College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET, Center Parc Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Georgia State, 70% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Where | Center Parc Stadium |
| Weather | 68°, overcast, wind 7 mph |
| Line | Georgia State −6.5, total 57.5 |
| Line movement | Hasn't moved since it opened. |
| Series | Coastal Carolina leads 5–4 |
| Last meeting | Coastal Carolina 40–27 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Georgia State by 3.6 | 60% | 67 |
| PRIME | Georgia State by 11.8 | 80% | |
| Elo | Georgia State | 70% | |
| The line | Georgia State −6.5 | 57.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Georgia State. 70% to win
All three ratings favor Georgia State, by 3.6 to 11.8 points. Georgia State's best matchup is its passing game, 19th in EPA per pass, against Coastal Carolina's pass defense at 121st. Coastal Carolina's way back in is its takeaway defense, 21st in interceptions per pass, against Georgia State's ball security at 108th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 23.3 (96th) | 33.7 (119th) |
| Georgia State | 26.3 (75th) | 35.3 (127th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 51.7% (99th) | 66.0% (135th) |
| Georgia State | 62.7% (24th) | 62.1% (121st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 39.3% (112th) | 12.7% (53rd) |
| Georgia State | 44.1% (65th) | 14.1% (32nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 49.3% (132nd) | 15.5% (131st) |
| Georgia State | 41.9% (67th) | 16.3% (135th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 5.28 (64th) | 7.28 (85th) |
| Georgia State | 5.86 (27th) | 7.27 (86th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 34.8% (105th) | 46.3% (121st) |
| Georgia State | 40.8% (68th) | 33.3% (29th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Coastal Carolina and Georgia State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Deuce Bailey, Coastal Carolina | 38.6% (133rd) | 1,654 (29th) |
| Cameran Brown, Georgia State | 49.4% (22nd) | 1,374 (78th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Knicely, Coastal Carolina | 5.7 (90th) | 43.0% (181st) |
| Lanear McCrary Jr., Georgia State | 4.9 (173rd) | 45.7% (137th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Colton Hinton, Coastal Carolina | 7 (150th) | 297 (188th) |
| Robby Washington, Coastal Carolina | 6 (202nd) | 286 (207th) |
| Rodshaun Dorsey, Georgia State | 10 (80th) | 418 (89th) |
| DJ Riles, Georgia State | 6 (211th) | 252 (266th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson, Georgia State | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19th |
| Xavier Esquillen, Georgia State | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20th |
| Ibrahim Diawara, Coastal Carolina | 3 | 0 | 1 | 43rd |
| Ja'Marion Wayne, Coastal Carolina | 0 | 2 | 0 | 307th |
| Mitchell Toney, Coastal Carolina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 308th |
| Aaron Moore, Georgia State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 842nd |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia State 1.1 points better (105th to 109th). PRIME also has Georgia State ahead, by 9.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia State ahead (95th to 110th).
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -10.3 (109th) | -9.2 (105th) |
| SP+ offense | 23.3 (96th) | 26.3 (75th) |
| SP+ defense | 33.7 (119th) | 35.3 (127th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.1 (54th) | -0.2 (92nd) |
| PRIME net | -10.7 (111th) | -1.4 (76th) |
| PRIME offense | -6.57 (114th) | 3.72 (38th) |
| PRIME defense | -4.79 (104th) | -4.80 (105th) |
| PRIME SOS | -4.9 (94th) | -8.1 (125th) |
| PRIME SOR | -2.3 (121st) | -0.8 (93rd) |
| Elo | 1277 (110th) | 1366 (95th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 80th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia State defense it faces ranks 67th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia State's offense ranks 43rd against Coastal Carolina's 107th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia State's offense against Coastal Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia State's passing game: 19th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Coastal Carolina's 121st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.09 (80th) | +0.14 (43rd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.21 (58th) | +0.29 (19th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.05 (80th) | +0.07 (61st) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 38.3% (114th) | 44.0% (40th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 42.6% (129th) | 48.0% (45th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 32.3% (32nd) | 32.3% (31st) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (89th) | 0.91 (112th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.02 (47th) | 3.10 (26th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.15 (60th) | 1.31 (22nd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.16 (107th) | +0.11 (67th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.28 (121st) | +0.15 (43rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.07 (76th) | +0.10 (100th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 46.8% (127th) | 41.3% (65th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.90 (16th) | 0.94 (72nd) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.09 (110th) | 3.02 (89th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.30 (108th) | 1.27 (101st) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Coastal Carolina is about as good throwing (58th in EPA per pass) as running (68th). Georgia State is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (39th). Coastal Carolina's pass defense ranks 118th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Georgia State has the edge: its offense ranks 25th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 96th.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 (71st) | +0.24 (25th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.25 (58th) | +0.44 (12th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.10 (68th) | +0.16 (39th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.47 (64th) | +0.63 (25th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 (102nd) | +0.10 (73rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.36 (118th) | +0.08 (37th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.08 (76th) | +0.17 (117th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.47 (96th) | +0.35 (53rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Coastal Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 0.2 a game, and Georgia State by 9.9. Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 89th in scoring, and the Georgia State defense it faces ranks 91st in points allowed. Georgia State's offense ranks 26th against Coastal Carolina's 89th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia State's offense against Coastal Carolina's defense.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 26.1 (89th) | 35.9 (26th) |
| Points allowed | 25.9 (89th) | 26.0 (91st) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Coastal Carolina's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 53rd in explosive play rate, and Georgia State's defense ranks 135th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Georgia State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 24th in SUPLEX, and Coastal Carolina's defense ranks 135th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 237.1 (61st) | 247.1 (48th) |
| Rush yards / game | 163.6 (72nd) | 210.0 (24th) |
| Yards per play | 6.06 (77th) | 6.45 (46th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.28 (64th) | 5.86 (27th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.28 (85th) | 7.27 (86th) |
| Completion % | 48.3% (129th) | 57.6% (98th) |
| Success rate | 39.3% (112th) | 44.1% (65th) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% (53rd) | 14.1% (32nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 34.8% (105th) | 40.8% (68th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 7.3% (103rd) | 2.9% (14th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.8% (43rd) | 3.4% (108th) |
| SUPLEX | 51.7% (99th) | 62.7% (24th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Coastal Carolina's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 21st in interception rate, and Georgia State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (108th). That's a mismatch. Georgia State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 8th in sack rate, and Coastal Carolina's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (103rd). That's a mismatch.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 216.9 (81st) | 207.4 (62nd) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 212.7 (130th) | 160.9 (84th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.16 (130th) | 6.46 (107th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.98 (127th) | 5.52 (109th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 9.67 (133rd) | 8.30 (102nd) |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3% (132nd) | 41.9% (67th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.5% (131st) | 16.3% (135th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 46.3% (121st) | 33.3% (29th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 8.2% (24th) | 10.3% (8th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.8% (21st) | 1.1% (119th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 66.0% (135th) | 62.1% (121st) |
What opponents managed against them.
Coastal Carolina is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Georgia State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Coastal Carolina. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Coastal Carolina's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.9 a game).
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.57 (40th) | 1.14 (121st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.86 (116th) | 0.57 (76th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | 1.71 (117th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.86 (45th) | 0.29 (119th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 1.00 (5th) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.86 (11th) | 0.86 (107th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.4 (36th) | -0.9 (123rd) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Georgia State has the more talented roster (105th in the 247Sports talent composite; Coastal Carolina is 106th). Georgia State also plays further above its talent: −3.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Coastal Carolina's −4.7.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 574.0 (106th) | 574.2 (105th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 9.1% (72nd) | 10.3% (68th) |
| Players on roster | 103 (119th) | 114 (44th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 55 (129th) | 58 (123rd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 5 (81st) | 6 (73rd) |
| 3-star players | 49 (108th) | 51 (103rd) |
| Below 3-star | 1 (86th) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 41 (11th) | 33 (22nd) |
| Transfer share | 74.5% (2nd) | 56.9% (14th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -4.7 (97th) | -3.7 (90th) |
| Returning production | 15.4% (107th) | 46.5% (58th) |
| Returning passing production | 11.5% (79th) | 64.2% (61st) |
| Returning rushing production | 16.1% (98th) | 126.8% (9th) |
| Returning receiving production | 17.0% (108th) | 27.6% (87th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 118 (118th) | 84 (84th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 99.5 (102nd) | 96.8 (96th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Coastal Carolina is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2). Georgia State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Coastal Carolina's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -1.5 (115th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.2 (34th) | +1.3 (28th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.8 (120th) | -0.5 (102nd) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.9 (105th) | -0.6 (94th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.1 (122nd) | +0.3 (49th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Georgia State, 70% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia State's best matchup is its passing game, 19th in EPA per pass, against Coastal Carolina's pass defense at 121st.
Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET at Center Parc Stadium, on ESPN+.
DraftKings has Georgia State −6.5, total 57.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Coastal Carolina leads 5–4. Last meeting: Coastal Carolina won 40–27 in 2025.
Coastal Carolina's is Deuce Bailey (1,654 passing yards this season); Georgia State's is Cameran Brown (1,374 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Coastal Carolina and Georgia State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.