This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

Troy

3–4 (1–2 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-9.0107th of 138
SP+ offense21.0104th of 138
SP+ defense29.8101st of 138
PRIME-11.4114th of 138
Elo1314105th of 138
Week 9

Troy at James Madison

Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Troy 15, James Madison 39. Big Al's pick: James Madison (93%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game22.9105th
Yards per play5.9885th
Success rate41.9%87th
Explosive play rate10.5%112th
Yards per carry5.5340th
Yards per pass attempt7.1987th
Sack rate allowed7.9%108th
3rd down conversion37.0%89th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.976th
Yards per play allowed5.3341st
Success rate allowed38.5%48th
Explosive plays allowed10.2%48th
Yards per carry allowed4.6256th
Yards per attempt allowed6.1630th
Sack rate4.0%118th
3rd downs allowed30.3%17th

Players

Gavin Griffin (RB), Jaheim Merriweather (RB), Jordan Lovett (RB), Will Crowder (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Sam HoustonW 24–21
2vs. Alabama StateW 34–17
3at MissouriL 17–27
4at Utah StateL 10–21
6vs. Southern MissW 55–34
7at LouisianaL 6–33
8vs. UL MonroeL 14–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Troy with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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